Minggu, 28 Februari 2010



ENGLISH :Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century was caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation. The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanism had a small cooling effect after 1950. These basic conclusions have been endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of science,[B] including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.

Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the 21st century.[2] The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. Most studies focus on the period up to the year 2100. However, warming is expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the large heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.[6][7]

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts.[8] Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects include increases in the intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional variations are uncertain.

Political and public debate continues regarding global warming, and what actions (if any) to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions; adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.



BAHASA JAWA :Pamanasan global kuwi anané prosès mundhaké suhu rata-rata atmosfér, segara, lan dharatan bumi. Suhu rata-rata global ing lumahing bumi wis ningkat 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) jroning satus taun pungkasan iki. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) nyimpulaké yèn, "sebagéyan gedhé paningkatan suhu hawa rata-rata global wiwit pertengahan abad kaping-20 kamungkinan gedhé disebabaké déning mundhaké konsentrasi gas-gas omah kaca akibat aktivitas manungsa"[1] liwat èfèk omah kaca. Kesimpulan dhasar iki wis diandharaké déning saora-orané 30 badan èlmiyah lan akademik, klebu kabèh akademi sains nasional saka negara-negara G8. Ananging, isih sisa sawetara èlmuwan sing ora setuju karo sawetara kesimpulan sing diandharaké déning IPCC kasebut. Modhèl iklim sing didadèkaké acuan déning projek IPCC nuduhaké suhu permukaan global bakal ningkat 1.1 nganti 6.4 °C (2.0 nganti 11.5 °F) antara taun 1990 lan 2100. Béda ing angka perkiraan iku disebabaké déning panggunaan skenario-skenario kang béda-béda ngenani emisi gas-gas omah kaca ing mangsa ngarep, sarta modhèl-modhèl sensitivitas iklim sing béda-béda. Senadyan sebagéyan gedhé panelitèn munjer marang periode nganti 2100, pamanasan lan mudhaking lumahing banyu segara dikira-kira bakal terus lumaku sajroning luwih saka sèwu taun senadyan tingkat emisi gas omah kaca wis stabil. Iki nggambaraké gedhéné kapasitas panas saka segara.

Mundhaké suhu global dikira-kira bakal nyebabaké owah-owahan liya kayadéné mundhaké lumahing banyu segara, mundhaké intensitas fenomena cuaca sing ekstrim, sarta owah-owahan gunggung lan pola presipitasi. Akibat-akibat pamanasan global sing liya yakuwi kapengaruhané kasil tetanèn, ilangé gletser, lan punahé werna-werna jinis kéwan. Sawetara bab-bab sing isih dadi ranguné para èlmuwan yakuwi ngenani gunggung pamanasan sing dikira-kira bakal kedadéyan ing mangsa ngarep, lan piyé pamanasan sarta owah-owahan sing dumadi kasebut bakal bervariasi saka siji dhaerah menyang dhaerah liyané. Nganti wektu iki isih ana wacana pulitik lan publik ing donya ngenani apa, yèn ana, tindakan sing kudu dilakoni kanggo ngurangi utawa mbalikaké pamanasan sabanjuré utawa kanggo adaptasi marang konsekwensi-konsekwensi sing ana. Sebagéyan gedhé pamarintahan negara-negara ing donya wis napak astani lan ngratifikasi Protokol Kyoto, sing ngarah marang pangurangan emisi gas-gas omah kaca.


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